What is expected pay-off in MT5 strategy tester optimization result? how to read it? how to interpret it? and how toΒ find the best parameter of my EA (expert advisor) using expected pay-off?
π What is Expected Payoff in MT5 Strategy Tester?
Expected Payoff in MetaTrader 5 is a key performance metric found in the Strategy Tester after optimization or backtesting. It measures:
π‘ The average profit or loss per trade over the entire test.
β Formula:
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Expected Payoff = Total Net Profit / Total Number of Trades
So if your EA made:
- $1,000 net profit
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Over 200 trades,
Then:
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Expected Payoff = 1000 / 200 = $5
It means on average, your EA earns $5 per trade (after losses are factored in).
π How to Read & Interpret Expected Payoff
Value Type | Interpretation |
---|---|
π’ Positive | Your EA is profitable on average per trade. Higher is better. |
π΄ Negative | Your EA loses money on average per trade β not viable. |
π’ Higher Value | Indicates more profit per trade, often a sign of better risk-reward or entry/exit logic. |
π Compare Across Optimizations | Helps identify which parameter sets yield better average returns per trade. |
π§ How to Use Expected Payoff to Find the Best Parameters
π During Optimization:
- In the MT5 Strategy Tester, optimize your EA with various input parameters.
-
After the test completes, sort the result by Expected Payoff.
- Click on the "Expected Payoff" column to sort from highest to lowest.
-
Look for parameter sets with:
- High Expected Payoff
- Reasonable Drawdown
- Solid Profit Factor (> 1.3 is usually a good baseline)
π© Caution: Don't Use Expected Payoff Alone
A high Expected Payoff can be misleading if:
- The number of trades is too small (less statistical confidence).
- The maximum drawdown is too high (risky).
- It results from just one big winner (not consistent performance).
π Best Practice: Combine with Other Metrics
When choosing the best parameters:
Metric | Why It Matters |
---|---|
β Expected Payoff | Shows average profit per trade. |
β Profit Factor | Compares gross profit to gross loss (reliability). |
β Drawdown (Relative or Maximal) | Measures risk. |
β Recovery Factor | Net Profit / Max Drawdown (profitability per risk). |
β Sharpe Ratio | Risk-adjusted performance. |
π§ Tip for Robust EA Optimization:
- Avoid optimizing solely for maximum profit.
- Use Expected Payoff + Low Drawdown + High Profit Factor.
- Check how the EA behaves on out-of-sample forward testing afterward.
Expected Pay-Off