Expected Pay-Off

August 2, 2025 by
Expected Pay-Off
Quantalpha Algorithms
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What is expected pay-off in MT5 strategy tester optimization result? how to read it? how to interpret it? and how toΒ find the best parameter of my EA (expert advisor) using expected pay-off?


πŸ“˜ What is Expected Payoff in MT5 Strategy Tester?

Expected Payoff in MetaTrader 5 is a key performance metric found in the Strategy Tester after optimization or backtesting. It measures:

πŸ’‘ The average profit or loss per trade over the entire test.

βœ… Formula:

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Expected Payoff = Total Net Profit / Total Number of Trades

So if your EA made:

  • $1,000 net profit
  • Over 200 trades,
    Then:

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Expected Payoff = 1000 / 200 = $5

It means on average, your EA earns $5 per trade (after losses are factored in).

πŸ“– How to Read & Interpret Expected Payoff

Value TypeInterpretation
🟒 PositiveYour EA is profitable on average per trade. Higher is better.
πŸ”΄ NegativeYour EA loses money on average per trade β€” not viable.
πŸ”’ Higher ValueIndicates more profit per trade, often a sign of better risk-reward or entry/exit logic.
πŸ” Compare Across OptimizationsHelps identify which parameter sets yield better average returns per trade.

🧠 How to Use Expected Payoff to Find the Best Parameters

πŸ“ During Optimization:

  1. In the MT5 Strategy Tester, optimize your EA with various input parameters.
  2. After the test completes, sort the result by Expected Payoff.
    • Click on the "Expected Payoff" column to sort from highest to lowest.
  3. Look for parameter sets with:
    • High Expected Payoff
    • Reasonable Drawdown
    • Solid Profit Factor (> 1.3 is usually a good baseline)

🚩 Caution: Don't Use Expected Payoff Alone

A high Expected Payoff can be misleading if:

  • The number of trades is too small (less statistical confidence).
  • The maximum drawdown is too high (risky).
  • It results from just one big winner (not consistent performance).

πŸ” Best Practice: Combine with Other Metrics

When choosing the best parameters:

MetricWhy It Matters
βœ… Expected PayoffShows average profit per trade.
βœ… Profit FactorCompares gross profit to gross loss (reliability).
βœ… Drawdown (Relative or Maximal)Measures risk.
βœ… Recovery FactorNet Profit / Max Drawdown (profitability per risk).
βœ… Sharpe RatioRisk-adjusted performance.

πŸ”§ Tip for Robust EA Optimization:

  • Avoid optimizing solely for maximum profit.
  • Use Expected Payoff + Low Drawdown + High Profit Factor.
  • Check how the EA behaves on out-of-sample forward testing afterward.
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